The Future of Kickstarter?

[hooby]

I do love Kickstarter (and Rockethub etc.) but I have that nagging feeling that a storm is brewing.

The big publishers games are like charts hits or block buster movies. Some of them may be great, but most are rather shallow rehashes of well-known formulas.

What B-movies are to Hollywood, and what alternative music is to the charts, that's the role that indie developers should fill next to the big publishers.

What Kickstarter does is to allow those indie developers to make exactly those games that the big publishers wouldn't. Games that do not exactly copy whatever currently has the most mainstream appeal and the best sales numbers. Kickstarter provides a means of funding to those developers, without requiring them to sell out to a publisher, loosing their indie status in the process.

But it is new - completely new - and we have no statistics yet about how many Kickstarter projects do release a finished product, and how many fail. More importantly we have no idea yet how many Kickstarter projects turn out to be exactly what the backers imagined, when putting up their money.

I bet the percentage of Kickstarter funded games that not only do release, but also satisfy all their backers, will be rather low. It will still take some time before the first Kickstarter games come out and do not live up to backers expectations, or fail to relase anything (playable) at all. (Or will turn out to be a scam, never intended to release)

But not before long it will start happening, and the internet will boil over with rage. Backers will feel entitled to what they paid for - not understanding that this is not how Kickstarter works. You do not "buy" stuff on Kickstarter. There is no contract.
You simply gift money to whoever makes the sweetest promises, no guarantees, no reclamations, no refund.

As some projects will inevitably fail to deliver - a storm is sure to come.

Will Kickstarter be able survive that first wave of backer backlash? It would be very sad to see it die, just because some backers with overblown expectations didn't understand what they were getting into...

[eisprinzessin]

I think crowdfunding is a great opportunity to leave the treadmill. Not only for the companies, but also for the customers. There will certainly be ups and downs - that is just natural evolution. Part of this might should be, that customers need to become more conscious of what they are doing ... that they responsible for making decisions and taking a little risk.

On the other hand, there are tons of people playing the lottery - not to speak of those who gamble - although everyone knows, that it's always the house that wins in the end. Where is the boiling rage here?

[Rolo42]

For several years, buying a so-called AAA title (or a title from an established company) has been a gamble.

The 'rage' is likely from the less-than-honest or less-than-upfront tactics of said companies and overall disappointment.

[Shoganai]

There is going to be a storm... many people right now truly don't understand what kickstarter is. Many still think of it as a "pre-order" site, which it isn't. You won't be able to return the game if you hate it... and I can't imagine the outrage that will hit the first time a project goes bankrupt and essentially leaves everyone as unsecured creditors.

Whenever I supported a project on Kickstarter, I just assumed that the money I used was spent and gone. Never to be recovered. Easier that way :P

Thankfully Kickstarter messed up on a project, and I've vowed never to use them again (explanations in the RANT forum), so my money is safely in my wallet again. I'm sure there are great projects still on the site - but you know what? I'll just wait until they hit the streets and I can read the reviews. Yes, I know I'll miss out on some nice perks by being a backer... but I managed to live without Kickstarter before, and I'll do the same after it as well

[Capn Tucker]

To support a Kickstarter project is like investing in the stock market. You are basically gambling that the project will be successful, and you will receive a return (i.e. finished product) on your investment.
Just like the stock market, there are no guarantees. That being said, I am hoping that KS will be the next big Internet success story, and will be around for a long time to come. I believe KS is the PC gamer's last, best hope for quality PC only game titles.
The big publishers (aka Axis of Evil as I like to call them) have, in the interest of greed gone over almost entirely to consolized and casual games, and are unlikely to return to their roots, which was the PC game market.
Another reason I want KS to succeed is that the middlemen (the publishers) are cut out, and the devs receive the majority of the money. Only time will tell though as to whether Kickstarter will be successful, or the next dot.com bust.

[hooby]

Originally Posted by eisprinzessin

Where is the boiling rage here?

Just imagine what could/would happen if for example Double Fine managed to release a horribly bad adventure game, after burning through all that cash they got. Do you really believe that people would calmly say "Well that's the risk I consciously took - I always knew this could happen"?

My bet is on responses like "WTFZOMFGBBQ WANNA SUE MY MONEY BACK!!!111oneoneeleven" - but not just some - forum-downing amounts of that.

Originally Posted by Capn Tucker

The big publishers (aka Axis of Evil as I like to call them) have, in the interest of greed gone over almost entirely to consolized and casual games, and are unlikely to return to their roots, which was the PC game market.

Only as long that's where most of the money is to be made.

The big advantage of PCs back in it's heyday was, that many people needed/wanted a PC at home for doing work, printing stuff, accessing the internet and email, etc.
That PC would then be able to play games too.

That advantage is completely gone. Any mobile phone, pad, cheap netbook offers everything the normal guy needs. Even if someone does own a regular office PC - that machine just wont be able to play any games.

The "gaming PC" has become something very specialized that's only for enthusiasts - and exactly those enthusiasts were the majority of the game market some time ago, they now are but a insignificant minority.

[eisprinzessin]

Originally Posted by hooby

Just imagine what could/would happen if for example Double Fine managed to release a horribly bad adventure game, after burning through all that cash they got. Do you really believe that people would calmly say "Well that's the risk I consciously took - I always knew this could happen"?

Yes, there'll be some rage for awhile. People wouldn't join their next crowd-funding project and get wary of buying their future products in general. So, any company's interest is to keep their customer base mostly happy.

Not saying there won't be some uproar in such a situation, but it'll wear off and people (the customers) will get back to normal business.

[Keyrock]

There will be some backlash at some point for sure. As with all things, you can't satisfy all the people all the time and some people will surely get a product that isn't 100% to their liking. Plus there is a small, but loud, contingent of people out there that just like to complain about things and start an uproar. I think it will follow this cycle:

Hot new trend > trend dies down > backlash > backlash dies down > Kickstarter keeps going at a much quieter level

[Kardiophylax]

Originally Posted by Keyrock

Hot new trend > trend dies down > backlash > backlash dies down > Kickstarter keeps going at a much quieter level

...and circle gets the square.

[Keyrock]

Here's some statistics on Kickstarter game campaigns:

http://www.computerandvideogames.com...ampaigns-fail/

According to a new report, less than half of the games projects that are pitched on crowd funding site Kickstarter are successful.

The site has received much coverage in recent months for the overwhelming successes of high-profile projects such as those from Double Fine and InXile Entertainment.
But success on the platform isn't as guaranteed as it seems. According to an Appsblogger report, only 43 percent of the 1,729 game proposals submitted to Kickstarter have reached their targets.

That's fewer than the platform's averages as a whole, with 58.7 percent of all projects achieving success.

The games category of the site has raised $22.7 million - the fourth highest category behind Design, Music, and Film & Video.

To be honest, 43% is a much higher success rate than I had anticipated. I figured it would be in the twenties at best.